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Date:      Sat, 18 Jan 1997 13:47:05 -0700 (MST)
From:      Terry Lambert <terry@lambert.org>
To:        dennis@etinc.com (dennis)
Cc:        hackers@freebsd.org
Subject:   Re: Commerical applications (was: Development and validation
Message-ID:  <199701182047.NAA12461@phaeton.artisoft.com>
In-Reply-To: <3.0.32.19970118123420.00a8f600@etinc.com> from "dennis" at Jan 18, 97 12:34:22 pm

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> >3) MS markets itself to large corps well.  Witness the Corel vs. 
> >Microsoft wordprocessor suite fight.
> >
> 
> Uh, I think that their billion dollar marketing budget is THE reason.
> You can brainwash the public with that much money (ie Bill
> Clinton)...and they are masters of the brainwash. Also they
> do have some pretty good products (aside from their networking),
> again if you throw enough money at a problem a solution is 
> likely to pop up eventually.

This logic is flawed.  Microsoft Money did not beat Quicken.

Microsoft's success arises from it being the first to be second in
any market, with an incrementally better product.

This is, incidently, the same reason for the success of most Japanese
marketing to the US.

Demming told the world this formula.

Apparently only Microsoft an Japan listened, because it take more
than a 3 month fiscal horizon to implement, and a publically held
company can not think more than 3 months ahead because that's when
the next quarterly report will impact the stock prices, and short
term value of the stock price is what motivates the board.  Microsoft
was able to listen because Bill is the Majority stockholder, and
he can ignore the board.

Look what happened to Apple when Steve Jobs was no longer able to
force the long view on them.  Now they are realizing their mistake,
but NeXTStep is too little, too late: it's now almost decade-old
technology.  That's why Apple wooed Be, Inc. over BeOS; it was a
mistake not to pay Gassee's price... one they may not live to regret.


This formula happens to match, dead-on, with the history of all
of Microsoft's successes and failures:


Successes:

Original product		Microsoft 2nd to market
-----------------------------	-----------------------------
CP/M				DOS
Mac "Finder"			Windows
OS/2				Windows95
WordPerfect			Word
Harvard Project			Project
Lotus 1-2-3			Excel
AppWare				OLE/ActiveX
Turbo C				Microsoft C
Turbo C++			Visual C
NetScape			Internet Explorer
etc.				etc.
-----------------------------	-----------------------------


Failures (under Microsoft management):

Microsoft 1st to market
-----------------------------
OS/2
Money
LAN Manager
Xenix
etc.
-----------------------------


And in some respects, FreeBSD has refused to learn this lesson, being
too proud to be 2nd to market with Linux technology (or SVR4 technology)
because "it's not BSD'ish enough").

Foo.


					Regards,
					Terry Lambert
					terry@lambert.org
---
Any opinions in this posting are my own and not those of my present
or previous employers.



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