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Date:      Sat, 6 Jun 1998 12:34:20 -0600 (MDT)
From:      Jawaid Bazyar <bazyar@hypermall.com>
To:        inet-access@earth.com
Cc:        inet-access@earth.com, linuxisp@friendly.jeffnet.org, freebsd-isp@FreeBSD.ORG, iap@vma.cc.nd.edu
Subject:   Re: US West and RADSL (fwd)
Message-ID:  <Pine.LNX.3.91.980606122248.20041D-100000@hypermall.com>
In-Reply-To: <Pine.BSI.3.93.980606085536.13151C-100000@sidhe.memra.com>

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On Sat, 6 Jun 1998, Michael Dillon wrote:

> If a DSL customer uses the telco as their ISP then the telco routes their
> packets through their own Internet connection. But if the customer chooses
> an alternate "DSL-enabled" ISP then the telco routes the packets through a
> local connection to that ISP. This local connection is what makes the ISP
> DSL-enabled.
> 
> Note that this is different from what most ISPs want. Most ISPs want to
> install their own DSLAM in the telco building and hook the customer's
> copper directly to that. Or alternatively they want to be in a building
> next door with reasonable low rates for access to the copper something
> like zero-mile circuits that are found in colo facilities.


Let's examine what ISPs *think* they want.

The cheapest DSLAM setup that can host more than a single customer and 
scale to anything reasonable costs in excess of $10,000. Yes, you can get 
a onesy-twosy Pairgain modem type thing for a grand or two, but do you 
really want to pay $2K per port long-term? I didn't think so.

Alright, the Denver metro area as an example has approximately 30 central 
offices. Instantly, in order to reach the whole potential customer base, 
you're looking at $300,000. Just in equipment. Now you have to tie all 
that together, in which case you're probably still looking at (minimum) 
30 T1 ports into an ATM cloud, at $400 per month each, for a total of 
$12,000 a month. Not to mention co-location/rent fees, anywhere from a 
couple hundred to a couple thousand a month.

And yes, you *have* to hit the entire area for this to make economic 
sense, because we're seeing loop qualification rates of 15% to 25%. That 
means that less than a quarter of the phone lines coming into the office 
are even capable of having DSL run over them.

So, take your existing customer base, divide by two to weed out those who 
won't pay more than $20/mo for anything, divide by five to get the number 
you can reach at all with DSL, and divide by two again for those who are 
happy with their existing internet service.

Are you *really* going to invest $300,000 cash and $12,000 to $50,000 a 
month so you can serve DSL to maybe 1/20th of your customer base? Exactly 
which "most ISPs" can afford that? Ohh, right. The *big* ones.

Let the telco make this infrastructure enhancement. That's what it is. 
The economics of this dictate that some one single company make the 
investment, and since it's the telco's copper and the telco's central 
office, and since the telco is willing to sell the service at a very 
reasonable price, let the telco pay for it.

For ISPs to try to get Washington DC to 'force' telcos to give them 
access to something that doesn't make any economic sense is a complete 
waste of energy. That energy should be spent on spam legislation, or 
fighting the comeback of Internet censorship.

Force the telcos to let ISPs in, and you'll get it. But it won't be "most 
ISPs". In fact, forcing this may well make it impossible for small ISPs 
to get access, whereas only the largest ISPs can afford the "drop a DSLAM 
in every CO" arrangement.

The above might be feasible in a small town with one or two COs. But not 
in any large metro area - and that's where the big money is.

--
 Jawaid Bazyar              |   Affordable WWW & Internet Solutions
 Interlink Advertising Svcs |   for Small Business
 bazyar@hypermall.com       |   910 16th Street, #1220    (303) 228-0070
 --The Future is Now!--     |   Denver, CO 80202          (303) 789-4197 fax


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