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Date:      Sun, 18 Aug 2002 07:23:31 -0700
From:      "Alfred Pythonstein" <pythonstein@hotmail.com>
To:        chat@freebsd.org
Cc:        hackers@freebsd.org
Subject:   It's dead Jim
Message-ID:  <F173crDSd9dOONScRUd00006be3@hotmail.com>

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Mad propz to Hiten 'imbecile' Pandya, btw...

It is official -- Netcraft is now confirming: *BSD is dying

One more crippling bombshell crushed the already beleaguered *BSD community 
when IDC confirmed that *BSD market share has dropped yet again, now down to 
less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming on the heels of a 
recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that *BSD has lost more market 
share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. *BSD is 
collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead 
last [samag.com] in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking test.

You don't need to be a Kreskin [amdest.com] to predict *BSD's future. The 
hand writing is on the wall: *BSD faces a bleak future. In fact there won't 
be any future at all for *BSD because *BSD is dying. Things are looking very 
bad for *BSD. As many of us are already aware, *BSD continues to lose market 
share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.

FreeBSD is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core 
developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time FreeBSD 
developers Jordan Hubbard and Mike Smith only serve to underscore the point 
more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: FreeBSD is dying.

Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.

OpenBSD leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of OpenBSD. How many 
users of NetBSD are there? Let's see. The number of OpenBSD versus NetBSD 
posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about 
7000/5 = 1400 NetBSD users. BSD/OS posts on Usenet are about half of the 
volume of NetBSD posts. Therefore there are about 700 users of BSD/OS. A 
recent article put FreeBSD at about 80 percent of the *BSD market. Therefore 
there are (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 FreeBSD users. This is consistent with 
the number of FreeBSD Usenet posts.

Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, FreeBSD went 
out of business and was taken over by BSDI who sell another troubled OS. Now 
BSDI is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.

All major surveys show that *BSD has steadily declined in market share. *BSD 
is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If *BSD is 
to survive at all it will be among OS dilettante dabblers. *BSD continues to 
decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time. For 
all practical purposes, *BSD is dead.

Fact: *BSD is dying



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