Date: Sun, 26 Nov 2000 13:14:42 -0800 From: "Rick Gresham" <rickgresham@qwest.net> To: <freebsd-questions@freebsd.org>, <mindshare@netbsd.org> Subject: Open Source Questions Message-ID: <001d01c057ee$11890800$9757e1cf@qwest.net>
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_001A_01C057AA.D711D1E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I confess, I've always been a bit of a Windows bigot. For various = reasons, I'm now trying to learn more about open source. I see three = major "providers" in the open source movement: Linux, BSD and Apple, = which incorporates a lot of Mach and BSD into their Darwin OS. There = seems to be several sources for Linux, Red Hat being the leader by = market share. BSD claims some technical advantages but Microsoft has = long demonstrated technology loses to marketing. I understand and agree with the reasons that are spurring growth in the = open source movement. My concern is along different lines than those I = see discussed in the trade rags, however. =20 Microsoft may (ok, does) engage in inappropriate behavior in the market = place. But for all their improprieties, and without getting into = debates about algorithms and mechanisms, they have built a comprehensive = and consistent software architecture that extends from handhelds to = clustered multi-processor behemoths. In addition, they pour more into = R&D than the GDP of a lot of small countries. They have a vision, = whether original or appropriated, of how the world should work and they = are driving fanatically in that direction. Most of the rest of the = industry, more or less reluctantly aids them or competes with them, = spurring development. But what if? Supposing some marketing miracle were to occur and = Microsoft had the economic slats kicked out from under them. Its easy = to rally the troops against a common enemy. If Microsoft were to = suddenly lose the impetus, would we continue to see the evolution in = software architectures that we've seen the past twenty years? = Microsoft made about $10B last year on applications, about $10B on OS = products and a few billion on MSN and other stuff. What would likely be = the impact of them making their OS products open source? How much would = that cost them? Would they be able to sustain their momentum on non-OS = products without the monopoly money they get from the OS stuff? Used to = be, if IBM sneezed, the industry caught a cold. Suppose Microsoft came = down with pneumonia? What would happen in the rest of the industry? Is = NASDAQ going to lose another 30%? Suppose Microsoft were motivated to make a future version of Windows, = Whistler for example, open source. What would happen? Would we see a = normalization of the all the best features in Linux, BSD, Darwin and = Whistler or would we see the open source community fracture along lines = drawn between the Unix derivatives and the Windows camp? What about all = the application folk, would they be forced to maintain two versions of = their applications, one for Linux, one for Windows? =20 Ninety percent or more of the world's microcomputers run Windows, but = ninety percent or more of the world's inhabitants don't use a = microcomputer. Suppose that were to change dramatically and rapidly. = Is the open source community ready to accommodate that level of = adoption? How long would it take for sufficient applications to appear = to make Linux as functional and full featured, application wise, as = Windows? I would appreciate any input you could offer along these lines. Pass = this along to anyone else you think might have the time and inclination = to respond. Point me to sources of information along these lines if you = can. I'm less concerned with the technical merits of the two camps as I = am with the industry's and the market's response to a sudden and = dramatic change from Windows to Linux. ------=_NextPart_000_001A_01C057AA.D711D1E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I confess, I've always been a bit of a = Windows=20 bigot. For various reasons, I'm now trying to learn more = about open=20 source. I see three major "providers" in the open source=20 movement: Linux, BSD and Apple, which incorporates a lot of Mach = and BSD=20 into their Darwin OS. There seems to be several sources for Linux, = Red Hat=20 being the leader by market share. BSD claims some technical = advantages but=20 Microsoft has long demonstrated technology loses to = marketing.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I understand and agree with the reasons = that are=20 spurring growth in the open source movement. My concern = is along=20 different lines than those I see discussed in the trade rags, = however. =20 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Microsoft may (ok, does) engage in = inappropriate=20 behavior in the market place. But for all their improprieties, and = without=20 getting into debates about algorithms and mechanisms, they have built a=20 comprehensive and consistent software architecture that extends from = handhelds=20 to clustered multi-processor behemoths. In addition, they = pour more=20 into R&D than the GDP of a lot of small countries. They = have a=20 vision, whether original or appropriated, of how the world should work = and they=20 are driving fanatically in that direction. Most of the rest of the = industry, more or less reluctantly aids them or competes with them, = spurring=20 development.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>But what if? Supposing some = marketing miracle=20 were to occur and Microsoft had the economic slats kicked out from under = them. Its easy to rally the troops against a common enemy. = If=20 Microsoft were to suddenly lose the impetus, would we continue to see = the=20 evolution in software architectures that we've seen the past twenty=20 years? Microsoft made about $10B last year on = applications,=20 about $10B on OS products and a few billion on MSN and other = stuff. What=20 would likely be the impact of them making their OS products open=20 source? How much would that cost them? Would they be able to = sustain=20 their momentum on non-OS products without the monopoly money they get = from the=20 OS stuff? Used to be, if IBM sneezed, the industry caught a = cold. =20 Suppose Microsoft came down with pneumonia? What would happen in = the rest=20 of the industry? Is NASDAQ going to lose another 30%?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Suppose Microsoft were motivated = to make a=20 future version of Windows, Whistler for example, open source. What = would=20 happen? Would we see a normalization of the all the best features = in=20 Linux, BSD, Darwin and Whistler or would we see the open source = community=20 fracture along lines drawn between the Unix derivatives and the Windows=20 camp? What about all the application folk, would they be forced to = maintain two versions of their applications, one for Linux, one for=20 Windows? </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ninety percent or more of the=20 world's microcomputers run Windows, but ninety percent or more of = the=20 world's inhabitants don't use a microcomputer. Suppose that were = to change=20 dramatically and rapidly. Is the open source community ready to=20 accommodate that level of adoption? How long would it take = for=20 sufficient applications to appear to make Linux as functional and full = featured,=20 application wise, as Windows?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I would appreciate any input you could = offer along=20 these lines. Pass this along to anyone else you think might have = the time=20 and inclination to respond. Point me to sources of information = along these=20 lines if you can. I'm less concerned with the technical merits of = the two=20 camps as I am with the industry's and the market's response to a sudden = and=20 dramatic change from Windows to Linux.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_001A_01C057AA.D711D1E0-- To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org with "unsubscribe freebsd-questions" in the body of the message
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