From owner-freebsd-questions@FreeBSD.ORG Tue Jul 19 05:50:03 2011 Return-Path: Delivered-To: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org Received: from mx1.freebsd.org (mx1.freebsd.org [IPv6:2001:4f8:fff6::34]) by hub.freebsd.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 0AB841065676 for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 05:50:03 +0000 (UTC) (envelope-from freebsd@edvax.de) Received: from mx02.qsc.de (mx02.qsc.de [213.148.130.14]) by mx1.freebsd.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 1D3528FC0A for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 05:50:00 +0000 (UTC) Received: from r55.edvax.de (port-92-195-103-124.dynamic.qsc.de [92.195.103.124]) by mx02.qsc.de (Postfix) with ESMTP id 8909425600 for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:49:59 +0200 (CEST) Received: from r55.edvax.de (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by r55.edvax.de (8.14.2/8.14.2) with SMTP id p6J5nw0l001586 for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:49:59 +0200 (CEST) (envelope-from freebsd@edvax.de) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:49:58 +0200 From: Polytropon To: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org Message-Id: <20110719074958.00c4a61f.freebsd@edvax.de> In-Reply-To: <20110718200120.05371fd6@scorpio> References: <20110717071059.25971662@scorpio> <4E23F31C.3010803@pathscale.com> <20110718073000.29e89590@scorpio> <20110718134903.993b87f5.freebsd@edvax.de> <20110718095759.476bf349@scorpio> <20110718165808.1f7f42b7.freebsd@edvax.de> <20110718154846.4f152525@scorpio> <20110718223141.94b14a23.freebsd@edvax.de> <20110718200120.05371fd6@scorpio> Organization: EDVAX X-Mailer: Sylpheed 2.4.7 (GTK+ 2.12.1; i386-portbld-freebsd7.0) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Subject: Re: Lennart Poettering: BSD Isn't Relevant Anymore X-BeenThere: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.5 Precedence: list Reply-To: Polytropon List-Id: User questions List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 05:50:03 -0000 On Mon, 18 Jul 2011 20:01:20 -0400, Jerry wrote: > On Mon, 18 Jul 2011 22:31:41 +0200 > Polytropon articulated: > > > Your TV example is very good. I've recently read a text > > that predicts the future of CDs - a text from the late 80's. > > When we consider what we are _currently_ using, the text > > predicting "no important future for CDs" looks quite funny. > > You are undoubtedly familiar with the 1986 quote: > > "I think there is a world market for about five computers" — Remark > attributed to Thomas J. Watson (Chairman of the Board of International > Business Machines) IBM has a tradition in information processing for approx. 100 years today. They've been "playing the game" from its beginning and have always aimed at the top of the customers - those that have no problem spending "too much" money on their technology. But this statement is claimed to be created in 1943, not in 1886; a different article claims about such a statement from 1953. At this time, those numbers sound quite obvious. They do _not_ sound probable for the 80's. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson See section "Famous misquote". > Now, I know you want to list Bill Gates' famous, "640K ought to be > enough for anybody." statement in 1981. The only problem with that is: > > 1) He denies it. > 2) No credible evidence or witness exists to prove he did say it. > > However, he readily admits making this one: > > "I see little commercial potential for the internet for the next 10" > years." Remarks at COMDEX (November 1994), attributed in Kommunikation > erstatter transport (2009) by Karl Krarup et al. questions 19.07.11 jerry malquoted gates; rectify :-) It's always funny how people predict development. You traditionally find them among politicians. They know nothing, but can explain everything. :-) Who would have thought, in the early days of "Windows", that this would be a mainstream OS some day? I mean, come on, it was worth a good laugh, nothing more, if you compared it to what competitors had to offer: highly superior. And some features that we take for granted in X, originated from that "ancient platforms", still have no equivalent in today's "Windows". See http://toastytech.com/guis/guitimeline.html - you can also find detailed screenshots of many GUI systems. And: You have to move to page 2 to see the first "Windows" here. While "Windows" will just be a footnote in IT history (in long term considerations), UNIX will be a philosophy. It will probably still run the Internet when users will have moved on to something different than "Windows"... This is just _my_ prediction, and time will tell if I'll have to join Watson, Gates and Torvalds. :-) > And who can forget the this 2006 beauty by Linus Torvalds: > > "Which mindset is right? Mine, of course. People who disagree with me > are by definition crazy. (Until I change my mind, when they can > suddenly become upstanding citizens. I’m flexible, and not > black-and-white.)" Sound like "Everyone is free to have his own opinion - as long as it matches mine." :-) > Actually, and this is a matter of semantics, I am technically using > DVDs and not CDs in my machines. And as surely as night follows day, > even that will be obsoleted soon enough. Of course it will, like VHS, Betamax, data tape. It's not a question IF it will. It's just WHEN. The next question will be: What will be NEXT? Better or worse? Will newer materials chemically dissolve faster or slower? Will more precise readers and writers (due to higher information packing rate) fail more often? Will it be compensated by cheap pricing? Home consumers who have precious memories on VHS-C tapes, on DV tapes or something similar will have to transition this content to new media. They will _always_ have to do this as long as no backwards compatibility isn't present. If they can't do it theirselves... tadaa! Market. Development is about creating markets, not about solving present problems, let alone future ones. Just see what happens in car industry: Fatter cars, more dirt, more consumption. There's really a market for that! Unbelievable. But it's also in IT: Fatter PCs, higher energy consumption, slower "overall usage speed" (see one of my previous posts for definition), higher TCO, faster "renewal". I simply can't imagine that this is what customers want. In many cases, customers do not even _know_ what they want, let alone what they really NEED. And here marketing and advertising enters the game: It tells them. > Heck, Blu-ray is currently > available and the 5D DVD with 10 terabytes, approximately 2000 times > the capacity of a standard DVD is on the horizon. It seems like only > yesterday I was using 5.25" floppies. The whole point being that the > text you are alluding too may not be that far from the truth. It's simply a present danger. The question is: How do _YOU_ take care for the future? Governments, for example, don't have the problem to pay attention to pricing. Today, they're using tape silos with "mounting robots", but that's already being obsoleted. Storage must be accessed faster. Solution? Disks. Many disks. Problem: Today's disks don't run for 10 years. So what? Copy data to new disks every two years. And copy them some more for backup storage (one for working, at least two for backup and archiving). But what for the files? Currently, there's a "big problem" in the banking and insurance sector here in Germany. They "suddenly" got "surprised" that they can't access some "important" data anymore. Solution? Hire COBOL programmers. Problem? COBOL isn't "state of the art" anymore. There are just a few programmers who are still able to properly use that language, and _THEY_ can feeely choose their wage. Why? Because they _CAN_! They are "living dinosaurs", according to your terminology, and sometimes, you exclusively need those people to get a job done, because all the modern script-kiddies, spoiled by the nonsense in their shiny boxes, can't do it. And here, FreeBSD states is RELEVANCE: It can be considered a "living dinosaur" which is quite healthy and powerful for its age. Because of its proven ability to survive and to accomodate changings without turning into a music box it is highly regarded a relevant system for critical areas where stability and continuity are absolutely required. -- Polytropon Magdeburg, Germany Happy FreeBSD user since 4.0 Andra moi ennepe, Mousa, ...