From owner-freebsd-questions@FreeBSD.ORG Tue Jul 19 07:32:29 2011 Return-Path: Delivered-To: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org Received: from mx1.freebsd.org (mx1.freebsd.org [IPv6:2001:4f8:fff6::34]) by hub.freebsd.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 8CE35106566C for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:32:29 +0000 (UTC) (envelope-from freebsd@edvax.de) Received: from mx02.qsc.de (mx02.qsc.de [213.148.130.14]) by mx1.freebsd.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id 3D33F8FC0A for ; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:32:28 +0000 (UTC) Received: from r55.edvax.de (port-92-195-103-124.dynamic.qsc.de [92.195.103.124]) by mx02.qsc.de (Postfix) with ESMTP id D9B5D1D98C; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:32:27 +0200 (CEST) Received: from r55.edvax.de (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by r55.edvax.de (8.14.2/8.14.2) with SMTP id p6J7WQbm001871; Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:32:27 +0200 (CEST) (envelope-from freebsd@edvax.de) Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:32:26 +0200 From: Polytropon To: Konrad Heuer Message-Id: <20110719093226.01c8c305.freebsd@edvax.de> In-Reply-To: References: Organization: EDVAX X-Mailer: Sylpheed 2.4.7 (GTK+ 2.12.1; i386-portbld-freebsd7.0) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Cc: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org Subject: Re: 2020: Will BSD and Linux be relevant anymore? X-BeenThere: freebsd-questions@freebsd.org X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.5 Precedence: list Reply-To: Polytropon List-Id: User questions List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:32:29 -0000 On Tue, 19 Jul 2011 08:18:41 +0200 (CEST), Konrad Heuer wrote: > But: Neither BSD nor Linux will ever have chance to conquere the desktop, > despite of KDE, Gnome or anything else. On the other hand, the desktop as we understand it today won't be present in the future. More and more mobile devices will obsolete localized storage and processing, so in my opinion, systems will divide in (1st) those that run on client devices such as netbooks, smartphones and tablets, and (2nd) those that run on the "big servers" bringing storage, processing power and applications to the users. > In business environments there is > no alternative to Windows. Depends => debatable. An example is LVM insurances: They switched thousands of desktop to Linux recently. Another example is IBM using OpenOffice. Over the years, business environments will realize that in order to get costs down and productivity up, there is no alternative to abandoning "Windows". But this process will take some time. I believe that it will happen, as the current path just means increasing costs in _any_ regards. Still, as long as this costs can be "integrated" into products and services that the customer finally will pay... > Microsoft successfully created Active Directory > from DNS, LDAP and Kerberos with an easy-to-manage interface and - > meanwhile - a seasonable server operating system like Windows Server > 2008R2. You can ask the admins of that environments what _they_ think. Increasing costs for IT installations and IT staff. Many of the "Windows" admins are tired of using outdated software, keeping dead applications on artificial life support and users being less and less able to do "everday tasks" (from their point of view, of course). Among my friends, I have few "Windows" admins, and some of them have a UNIX background. They often express the wish for things we take for granted in BSD - tools for automation, for diagnostics, tools to look into the "black box" that decides about decline and fall of a business, while being faced with problems that they can just solve by the well known "wipe + install cycle". As long as everything seems to work - fine. But if it surprisingly stops working - big trouble. They also complain about less and less knowledge, experience, logic, understanding of fundamentals and even terminology, missing ability of deduction among young IT professionals. > It was long way for them from horrible Windows NT, but they did > it. I don't see any chance to manage a large client-server-cloud with BSD > or Linux as you can do with Active Directory. The tools are there. What I assume you seem to miss is the front-end GUI that allows illiterate people to administrate such a complex conglomerate. Computers aren't easy, although advertising wants to make people believe the opposite. And as soon as the existence of a business depends on a working IT, less costs are better. And if less costs also bring less risk (from proprietary stuff and vendor lock-in), the better. But as long as money doesn't play an important role... > Additionally, and especially in the personal environment, the market will > more and more move away from the traditional PC or notebook -- except for > games, but that's again not an area where Linux or BSD are strong -- to > tablet PCs and other mobile devices. Well, I also assume this. And entertainment components will also undergo such a kind of migration, means that Internet functionality will be in the TV set, and gaming... hmmm... that's where consoles still hold an important market share, next to gaming PCs. > To my mind we'll have to face a rapid > change within the next years, and operating systems of the future might be > Android or IOS or Windows Mobile or something similar which my base on > Linux or BSD but are something different. Rapid? I don't think so. Business is lazy, and governments are lazier than lazy, so the transition to locally-centralized installations will take some time. Of course I can't be sure about the time required for this, 10, maybe 20 years? But the change _will_ happen, driven by industry primarily. Users will adopt, as always. > BSD will have to keep in and find new niches on the server market. It will be among the systems keeping dead systems alive, and it will surely be important for running technically fundamental infrastructures on which the shiny boxes build their front. > The > number of installations is not the most important figure. Functionality is > important -- ZFS, HAST, CARP, jails, as already mentioned -- would be nice > to see a distributed file system. Hmmm... sounds familiar. Didn't VMS have that? Oh wait, things like VMS didn't even exist! :-) Linux and BSD will be there, in one form or another. Especially BSD will be part of systems you "don't see", such as routing systems, firewalls, PBXs and so on - due to its licensing that allows free use (and even turning it into a proprietary product). Linux will also be the basis of the software used in mobile devices, as it it will be a platform for non-x86 systems that fit the needs of mobile computing much better. As people slowly start to realize that security is important, there will be "new chances" for Linux and BSD to provide what MICROS~1 has (intendedly) failed to deliver: Security you can rely on, by the fact that nothing is hidden (and can be used for "unofficial" purposes by governmental contracts). There are also interesting projects about a "High Security Server" (HSS) developed by a german security company. Especially in Cloud computing this will be important. http://www.osnews.com/story/24905/Interview_High_Security_Server Do you remember the fun when MICROS~1 + Telekom customers lost all their data in the Cloud years ago? :-) While I agree that Linux and BSD _may_ be irrelevant to the masses, it will be relevant to "non-conformers" (the real professionals) in 2020. Two years later, we'll be processed into Soylent Green anyway. :-) -- Polytropon Magdeburg, Germany Happy FreeBSD user since 4.0 Andra moi ennepe, Mousa, ...