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Date:      Wed, 08 Sep 1999 22:08:30 -0700
From:      "Jordan K. Hubbard" <jkh@zippy.cdrom.com>
To:        Brett Glass <brett@lariat.org>
Cc:        "Jordan K. Hubbard" <jkh@zippy.cdrom.com>, freebsd-chat@FreeBSD.ORG
Subject:   Re: Market share and platform support 
Message-ID:  <7196.936853710@localhost>
In-Reply-To: Your message of "Wed, 08 Sep 1999 21:52:00 MDT." <4.2.0.58.19990908203747.0463bd20@localhost> 

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> So, instead of dissing the discussion, add something to it! So far,
> most of your comments have been to the effect that "There's no problem;

Anything which I say that contradicts your gloom-and-doom assessment
automatically falls into the category of "ignoring the problem" and
thus, as we've more than adequately proven in this mailing list,
there's really no point in discussing it with you.  You've already
amply demonstrated that you see only in black-and-white and thus
having a discussion about color is, well, pretty pointless.  Arguing
with polemicists is what tires me out!

> Want me to do that? Then help to ensure that I can go ahead
> with plans to release a high-end FreeBSD distribution. One of the things 
> the investors are holding out on is that they MUST be assured that
> Walnut Creek does not and will not control development. Which, 

There are several organizations who want to create "high end
distributions" at this stage, and some of them have waved non-trivial
amounts of money in my face in the discussions we've had to date -
it's hardly a new or non-obvious idea, after all.  Does this mean that
I'm jumping for their dollar bills or "son, we'll make you a star"
promises without considering what the 2nd-order effects might be?  Of
course not, and without knowing more about what your "investors" are
thinking about, I'm certainly not going to openly endorse any such
thing or make promises about whether I will or won't attempt to spike
their guns if I don't like what they're doing.

That's no more or less than I've told the other folks, and it's always
been my policy in these matters to move slowly and carefully, doing my
best to see just what each such group of people are up to and have in
mind before I know if it's going to be compatible with the project's
own goals.  In many cases, it's best that the company in question
simply work separately on its own objectives and try to share what
resources they can rather than have an unhappy marriage, and this
strategem has worked well for companies like Whistle and Juniper so
why mess with it?

The Walnut Creek CDROM relationship is one where we mostly lucked out
since we didn't really know one another well before getting into it
and things have gone surprisingly well despite that fact.  It's not a
type of luck I'd rely on again, however.  Which kind of begs the
question: If these folks are so serious, why haven't they even talked
to any of the other people actually involved in the project?  The
other investor-types certainly have, and it should again be
re-emphasised that I'm only interested in sincere partners with
something truly of value to offer the FreeBSD Project when we start
talking about this kind of thing, I'm not into participating in some
clueless VC's get-rich-quick scheme or courting a set of people who
aren't really sure which horse they want to back anyway; I've watched
those people and they tend to switch horses a lot in mid-stream, too.

I'm also not here to make my fortune and I think that's already been
adequately proven by the number of insanely profitable start-ups I've
passed on just to remain where I am.  I and the others are here as
custodians of FreeBSD to ensure that all of its technology and its
partnerships are good ones.  If these good partnerships also make some
money for the participants then more power to them, of course, but
that's a side-effect and not the primary goal.  The primary goal is to
make sure that the project does well, gets fed the right things and
doesn't eat any poison while it's wandering around the computing
landscape.  Not unlike caring for a labrador retriever, I guess. :)

> So, Jordan, what I'm able to do is really in your hands.

You've given me far less information than any of the other people I've
already put at arm's length, and I'm not talking about castles in
clouds and other really attractive scenarios because EVERYBODY paints
those things when they're trying to sell an idea, such scenarios often
have nothing whatsoever to do with the ensuing reality or 9 out of 10
startups wouldn't fail.  What determines who that lucky 1 out of 10
will be is who's involved, how much investment is being made and just
how and where these investors expect to get their money BACK OUT
again.  What's the business model?  What are the projections for
profitability?  Who are the principals in this company?  What's their
track record?

Again, knowing that statistics are strongly against you and that 9/10
is pretty bad odds for survival, anyone *not* asking such questions is
frankly setting themselves up for nothing more than a fall and I can't
afford to let that falling body be the FreeBSD Project.  If you have
more to tell me than what you've told me so far, let's hear it.  If not,
it sounds exactly like the same story I've heard 50 times already from
exceedingly dubious businessmen with dubious credentials hoping there's
still enough gold at Sutter's mill to make a good strike.

- Jordan


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