Date: Wed, 15 May 2002 21:08:34 -0700 From: Robert Clark <res03db2@gte.net> To: Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org> Cc: freebsd-chat@FreeBSD.ORG Subject: Re: The road ahead? Message-ID: <20020515210834.I1282@darkstar.gte.net> In-Reply-To: <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org>; from nils@daemon.tisys.org on Thu, May 16, 2002 at 12:49:09AM %2B0200 References: <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org>
next in thread | previous in thread | raw e-mail | index | archive | help
On Thu, May 16, 2002 at 12:49:09AM +0200, Nils Holland wrote: > (DANGER: This is long and has not much to do with FreeBSD (that's why I > posted it to -chat). If you're busy, skip this message now. If not, get > yourself a cup of coffee and read on ;-) > > Hi folks, > > it's midnight here in Germany - time for me to try to start another > not-directly-FreeBSD-related, but still not totally inappropriate thread on > this list. What I'm going to talk about below may not be new to you, but I > recently talked about this with quite some people, so I thought I'd bring > it up here. So let's begin: > > If you have been watching the computer industry during the last few years, > you will have noted an interesting event: Beginning in the middle of the > 90's, (computer) technology was seen as *the one great* thing of the > future. The Internet became popular for normal people back then, and what > followed made me want to puke more than once: Everywhere you looked, no > matter if into newspapers, magazines, TV news or whatever, folks were > talking about the Internet - despite the fact that they probably didn't > even really understand what it was. Even more interesting: Everyone seemed > to want to "ride the wave", and many investores piped a whole lot of money > into "e-companies", even if they were built on the most brain-dead business > plan. These were also the days of the "funky words", when an I or E was > appended to normal words in order to make them sound cool, just like > "e-commerce", "e-business", "e-book" and so on. Hell, this made me sick - I > always thought any sane business man would actually have brains - back in > the mid-90s, however, this didn't seem to be the case, as even a product > called "e-shit" would probably have been successful back then. (Note that > nobody would have asked what kind of product that actually is - as look as > it starts with e- it must be good). > > Now, as you will also have noticed, in the years 2000 and 2001 this mood > suddenly started th change. Many dot.com's (another one of these funky > words) turned into dot.bomb's. Finally, intelligence was brought back into > the e-world - seems that people noticed that you can't really turn a word > into money by prepending it with an e-. > No, people are as stupid as they ever were, they just have less money to throw around. > So far about what has happened. The question, however, is what we can learn > from it. Basically, I believe that the computer industry is in serious > danger - Moore's Law seems to be self-destructing. What I mean by this? > Well, seriously, if I go to a computer shop these days, then I will find a > whole lot of hyper-fast machines, but for an ordinary user, these probably > wouldn't make much sense. If a 500 Mhz machine sits 90% idle while someone > writes a letter of surfs the web, then why should he upgrade to a 2000 Mhz > one? > I've seen hundreds of systems replaced at the office, just because they are no longer fast enough. As software gets bigger and slower, the systems need to be faster. Even FreeBSD, as efficient as it is, likes the faster hardware. > It seems to me that during the last decades, the industry made constant > progress. Taking into account only the view of the ordinary user and not > the view of the more advanced hacker, much has changed: At first there was > only DOS with its cryptic commands - and since that was "too much" for > normal users, they didn't really like that. Then, suddenly (more or less), > Bill Gates released Windows, and - hell - now every idiot could > point-and-click! Early Windows, up to and including 3.1 was not very nice > (I could also use swear words at this point), so a *new* version of Windows > followed, called Windows 95. Of course, people had to buy this stuff, and > they also had to upgrade their computers or buy new ones every time. > Windows 95 finally brought computing even to the people with the lowest IQ, > but it was not perfect yet: A new version, Windows 98 (judged by the date > of its release, Gates could also have called it "iWindows" or "e-Windows") > was released. Now people could do everything: Surf the web, listen to > music, burn CDs, watch DVDs, etc. > Only elitists should have computers? > And suddenly - BANG! Seems that the computer industry has nothing to offer > beyond that. And that's why it's stuck, having financial problems. > > Of course, one could say that new technological inventations are made at a > faster pace than ever before - but I guess this is only half of the truth: > For the ordinary Joe, DOS turning into Windows 3.1, Windows 3.1 turning > into Windows 95, and so on, was a real revolution. What seems to be > invented these days seems to be only toys, no more revolutions! Does the > new Fisher Price look in Windows XP make computers easier to use or people > more productive, just like the switch from DOS to graphical Windows did for > ordinary users? I guess not. And then - what else is "new" these days? Some > folks would see the ability to talk to your computer as the next big > revolution (which is partly already possible), but I fear that I have to > say that talking would actually slow folks down, compared to having them > enter commands or use the mouse within a GUI. So, another toy, but nothing > new! > People have a hard time making sense when talking to each other. To expect a computer to undestand blather is asking a bit much? > While the performance of silicon technology may be increasing by whatever > insane factor every year, I don't see too many occasions where such > performance is actually needed - at least not enough occassions in order to > enable computer companies to earn as much money as they did in the past. > If perfomance increases didn't keep the waterfall of lowering prices going, what would we end up with? <snip> > > Personally, when I first heard about the stuff E-Ink and XEROX were working > on, I already predicted that they would have no success - at least not as > far-reaching as their marketting insanity said. The reason for this is > simple: I don't see a need for electronic, re-writable paper. After all, we > have real paper, which is inexpensive, "easy to use" and convenient to use > for somewhat static information. On the other hand, we have well-known > computer display technology for "dynamic" information, like web sites. As > such, I didn't (and still don't) see a board market for this e-paper toy stuff. > It somehow reminds me of the prediction made in the 70's, which basically > said that before the next century, offices would work without any paper. > Obviously, this didn't happen. Most predictions like this don't happen, and > if they do, then mostly a whole lot different that originally imagined. > If I recycled the unncessary paper in my office, it would be almost paperless. When you get paid to push buttons, paper is a waste of time. > Bottom line (and at this point I really want to stop wasting your bandwidth > and precious time): I guess that looking at the computer and electronics > company, "all the good ones are taken" or "everything that can (sanely) be > done has been done". Of course, the future may bring the one or the other > new interesting development, but I don't see many real revolutions anymore, > as we seem to have reached a point where going any further does no longer > provide any increased benefit. > Time for some deconstruction? Time for the fat to be cut away from hardware designs? Will computers become so common that only the lower classes have anything to do with them? Will the offshore coding hordes tire of piecemeal work and turn their sights on knocking humpty off the wall? > Comments to this - well - rather free-style "essay" are welcome ;-) > > Greetings > Nils > > -- > > Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org> > Ti Systems - http://www.tisys.org > Addicted to computing since 1987 > High on FreeBSD since 1996 > > To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org > with "unsubscribe freebsd-chat" in the body of the message To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org with "unsubscribe freebsd-chat" in the body of the message
Want to link to this message? Use this URL: <https://mail-archive.FreeBSD.org/cgi/mid.cgi?20020515210834.I1282>