Date: Wed, 20 Mar 1996 11:16:44 -0600 From: Tony Kimball <alk@Think.COM> To: dennis@etinc.com Cc: hackers@freebsd.org Subject: Re: ADSL Message-ID: <199603201716.LAA20371@compound> In-Reply-To: <199603201653.LAA05552@etinc.com> (dennis@etinc.com)
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I promise not to respond any more in this thread, but I can't resist clarifying my previous statements which were not clear enough to communicate effectively. From: dennis@etinc.com (dennis) Date: Wed, 20 Mar 1996 11:53:41 -0500 >99.9% of that bandwidth is going to go to VOD. Me, I just want to >push the bottleneck out of my house into the ISP premises, then I'm happy. >If the ISP is inadequate to my needs, I'll shop for another ISP. Shop til you drop! we just added features that let an ISP FILTER OUT video traffic, because you can't let a someone paying $22. a month run CUSEEME on a 28.8 line for 6 hours. VOD should never touch the net any more than POTS or Fax traffic. I'm talking about CATV replacement. Cable is also technically obsolete, although I expect it to take many more years to die (say 2008 maybe) than ISDN will take because there is much more pre-existing plant and the mean customer base is more conservative. In the future net services will be managed by the same people who do the phone and the tv. One bill each month. With T1 service priced at $1000. a month, I don't think that the average Joe is going to dump his dial-up connection for it even if the modem and the line are free. T1 doesn't cost 1k/mo where I live, it costs $300. Nor can an ISP expect to charge T1 rates for a pipe that shares a T1 link with 1000 other users. At that rate, you should ideally charge $0.30/mo, but of course there are other cost factors which dominate. That is why you pay $20/mo for 7x24 dialup. An ISP who fails to accomodate the changing technical and economic realities of the situtation will not compete effectively any more than a 2400baud ISP could compete today. (But Tymenet still lives!) I know full well that even the most rabid bleeders will not buy ADSL today. I'm one of them. But this June they will. And by June next, the overwhelming technical superiority of ADSL and the economies of scale will be pushing into the mainstream user base. And no matter *what* I *promise* not to respond to any more replies. Really, I do. Follow-up to private mail or comp.dcom.isdn or somesuch.
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